Young Australians faced a dark future. Now the treasurer has cued the sun

May 12, 2026 — 5:40pm

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A man cannot live on Treasury briefings alone, and in preparing his fifth budget, Treasurer Jim Chalmers took up lap-swimming for its meditative calm. He went running to expend the nervous energy that defines his character, and he read, to broaden his perspective.

Two of the books that Chalmers read are strikingly relevant to the moment.

The first was Chokepoints, by Edward Fishman, a former US State Department and Treasury official in the Obama administration.

It examines the choke points at which trade can be squeezed, like a boot on the neck of global prosperity.

One choke point – the small body of water called the Strait of Hormuz – has a chokehold on this budget.

The economic forecasts that underlie Chalmers’ budget are a pick-a-path, depending on the whims of the man in the White House and his fearsome Iranian adversaries.

In one scenario, inflation peaks at a painful 5 per cent. In another scenario, oil prices reach $200 a barrel and inflation rises above 7 per cent.

As Budget Paper 1 puts it: “There are significant risks surrounding the economic forecasts, particularly in relation to the duration of the conflict and disruption in the Middle East.”

In other words, the earnest forecasts and estimates in this document could be proven wrong tomorrow. Trying to predict anything in this environment is like tap-dancing on jelly.

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