President Donald Trump has vowed to deport 1 million undocumented immigrants out of the United States every year. So far, he’s falling well short of that goal, with estimates in the neighborhood of 200,000 as of August.

Still, the Trump administration carries on with its deportation campaign. Driven by publicly anti-immigrant officials like Stephen Miller, the White House has ramped up funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement to record levels, deployed masked agents across cities and towns tasked with fulfilling arrest quotas, and is pursuing new deals with countries like South Sudan for so-called third-country deportations.

The unwitting face of Trump’s crackdown has become Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a Maryland father and Salvadoran citizen who was mistakenly deported to a megaprison in El Salvador in March. Abrego Garcia is back in the country and is now fighting off federal smuggling charges on top of a deportation order to Uganda. The chaotic case against Abrego Garcia and the Trump administration’s tactics are becoming emblematic of a larger war on immigrants that could lead to a smaller, poorer United States.

According to Derek Thompson, writer, podcaster, and co-author of Abundance, this crackdown could contribute to a “massive” change in the US population and economy. And Trump’s “unjust” tactics could backfire in the next elections.

Below is an excerpt of Thompson’s conversation with Today, Explained host Sean Rameswaram, edited for length and clarity. There’s much more in the full podcast, so listen to Today, Explained wherever you get podcasts, including Apple Podcasts, Pandora, and Spotify.

Derek,

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