The word of the week is “weak.”

Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post declared in a headline on May 9 that “Trump heads to China weakened as Xi gains leverage ahead of summit.”

That same day, Bill Emmott, former editor of The Economist, wrote on Substack that President Donald Trump “will be the one in the weaker position” when he meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The most immediate issue on the agenda for the summit scheduled to begin May 14 in Beijing is the Iran war.

“You know, in all fairness, he gets like 60% of his oil from Hormuz,” Trump said on May 5 in the Oval Office, referring to Xi and the Strait of Hormuz outside Iran. “He’s been very respectful. We haven’t been challenged by China. They don’t challenge us. And he wouldn’t do that. I don’t think he’d do that because of me.”

So who actually holds the leverage?

Trump still holds key leverage over Xi

First, Xi appears to believe he can act with impunity. Beijing has provided Tehran with diplomatic backing, propaganda and economic support and targeting data. Iran also possesses Chinese weapons, including the anti-ship cruise missiles fired at the USS Abraham Lincoln in late March. By all indications, Beijing has continued resupplying the mullah’s arsenals throughout the war.

Moreover, Xi has not been especially respectful. On May 2, China’s Commerce Ministry invoked the country’s........

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