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Dems Warn Prediction Markets Allowing Bets on Wildfires Threaten Public Safety

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Several Democratic senators have sent a letter to Michael Selig, chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), expressing deep concern about online prediction gambling markets allowing bets on wildfires.

The letter, sent earlier this week, notes that Polymarket — an online prediction gambling website — allowed users to bet on several questions relating to the Palisades and Eaton Fires near Los Angeles, California, last year. Those questions included how long it would take for the fires to be contained, to what extent the fires would spread, and how many acres total would burn, totaling around $1.2 million in bets.

Future bets on these types of environmental events may not just violate ethical mores, but could lead to dangerous outcomes, critics have said.

“Somebody could place a bet and then be motivated to actually start a fire,” said Ann Skeet, senior director of leadership ethics at Santa Clara University’s Markkula Center for Applied Ethics, speaking to The Guardian. “There’s just the practical reality of what it is you might be motivating people to do.”

There’s also the concern of whether someone should gain financially at the expense of someone else’s misfortunes.

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