The Islamic Republic has entered the most dangerous phase of its 47-year existence. Every option before the ruling clerics carries enormous risk. Every decision accelerates the crisis. Every attempt to cling to power deepens the misery of the Iranian people. Only weeks ago, Tehran's leaders claimed victory after surviving a bruising confrontation with Israel and the United States. Today, that illusion lies in ruins. The fragile ceasefire has collapsed, American strikes have resumed, Iranian missiles have targeted neighboring Gulf states, commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has come under attack, and the regime has succeeded in alienating almost every country in the region. Far from projecting strength, the clerical establishment appears increasingly isolated, desperate, and unpredictable.

For decades, the regime relied upon a strategy of asymmetric warfare. Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthi movement in Yemen, and an array of Shi’ite militias in Iraq formed Tehran's so-called "Axis of Resistance." They served as buffers against direct confrontation while extending Iranian influence from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea. That strategy is rapidly unraveling. Hamas has suffered devastating losses. Hezbollah has endured sustained military pressure that has severely weakened its operational capabilities. The Houthis face relentless attacks on their missile sites, ports and command centers. Iraqi militias have become increasingly vulnerable to precision strikes and growing political opposition inside Iraq itself. Billions of dollars invested over decades have produced diminishing returns. Iran's expensive regional empire has become an enormous liability.

With its proxies under unprecedented pressure, Tehran has increasingly chosen direct confrontation. Missile attacks against Gulf neighbors represent a dramatic escalation that risks driving every Arab state into closer military cooperation with Washington. Even governments that previously sought dialogue with Tehran now face growing pressure to strengthen collective........

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