When Donald Trump, Scott Bessent, or Howard Lutnick make a short-term prediction about, say, our nation’s economic prospects for 2026, I listen. When an economist, technologist, or futurist makes a long-term forecast, I shudder. So much of what is uttered never comes to pass!

At the start of each year, the ‘seers’ among us feel compelled to prognosticate. And why not? Being in the long-term prediction business has its benefits. If you make a pronouncement today about something that might happen in 25 to 30 years or more, it’s far enough away to shield you from most doubters.

Recently, I encountered a National Geographic issue published 11 years ago. It featured a variety of predictions. Three forecasters, whose predictions I review below, are prominent subject matter experts in their chosen fields; otherwise, National Geographic would not have consulted them.

Cars and Phones and Religion

Paul Saffo, a technology forecaster, in 2015 predicted that within five to 10 years, driverless cars would share the roadways with traditional vehicles. Largely wrong on the timing, he said that this development would happen in cities first and then spread to the hinterlands within another decade. Eventually, he will likely be correct.

Saffo asserted that people will no longer own cars. In the long run, they'll have subscriptions to auto services. Cars will show up at their doors.........

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