In the 2024 presidential election, President Donald Trump won each of Iowa's four congressional districts. He won the 1st District by 8 points, the 2nd District by 10 points, the 3rd District (which includes Des Moines) by 4 points, and the 4th District, in the far western part of the state, by a landslide 31 points.

That — the place where he won by 31 points — is where Trump went last week, flying from Washington, D.C., nearly three hours each way to hold a rally in Sioux City for Rep. Ashley Hinson, the Republican who is in a close race for the Senate, and Zach Lahn, the Republican who is in a close race for governor.

Which raised the question: Why go to the place where Republicans are guaranteed a solid win? Why not campaign in a part of Iowa where the GOP needs help, needs to improve its performance?

The answer is low-propensity voters. There are a lot of Republican-leaning voters in the 4th District of Iowa who don't go to the polls for every election, but turned out in 2024 to vote for Trump. They are the kind who probably wouldn't turn out for a midterm election in 2026 with no Trump on the ballot. The GOP challenge is how to get their votes this time.

"MAGA low-propensity voters are a sizable part of our low-propensity voters," Jeff Kaufmann, the longtime chairman of........

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