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CHARLEBOIS: Why the most important food prices are rising again

When both meat and produce rise at the same time, it’s not a coincidence — it’s a signal the entire food system is under pressure

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Food inflation in Canada may have eased to 4.0% in March, but don’t be misled by the headline. The number that matters most — food purchased from stores— actually rose to 4.4%, up 0.3 percentage points. That increase tells us something important: cost pressures are not fading. In fact, they are shifting — and intensifying in key categories.

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Look at what’s driving the change. Meat and vegetables are both rising, and for very different reasons. But together, they paint a clear picture of a food system still under strain.

CHARLEBOIS: Why the most important food prices are rising again Back to video

Start with meat. Beef prices are up 12.7%, chicken 7.5%, and pork 6.2%. This is not short-term inflation. It’s structural. North America is still dealing with the aftershocks of herd contraction. Farmers reduced livestock during periods of high feed costs and uncertainty, and rebuilding those herds takes time — often years. In the meantime, supply remains tight.

Layer on top of that, higher input costs. Feed, transportation, labour, and processing have all become more expensive. Energy, in particular, plays a critical role. From running farm equipment to transporting animals to powering processing plants, rising fuel costs are pushing prices upward across the entire protein supply chain. These are not costs that can easily be absorbed — they are passed on.

Vegetables, on the other hand, are telling a different story — one of volatility. Prices for cucumbers surged 28.4% in March, tomatoes 14.3%, and lettuce 11.7%. These increases are not about long-term supply constraints. They are about exposure.

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Produce is highly sensitive to weather, logistics, and energy. Much of what Canadians consume during the winter months is imported or grown in greenhouses— both of which are energy-intensive. Heating greenhouses, transporting goods over long distances, and managing cold-chain logistics all depend heavily on fuel. When energy prices rise — or even become unpredictable — produce prices respond quickly.

Climate variability is compounding the problem. Unfavourable growing conditions in key producing regions, whether in the United States or Mexico, can disrupt supply overnight. Unlike meat, where production cycles are long, produce markets adjust rapidly — and often sharply.

What’s unusual right now is that both categories are rising at the same time.

Typically, consumers can offset increases in one category with stability in another. But when proteins remain structurally expensive and produce becomes highly volatile, there are fewer places to turn. This is what makes the current moment particularly challenging for households.

And there is another layer to consider: energy.

CHARLEBOIS: Canada’s meat scales are off – and so is oversight

CHARLEBOIS: Disappearing middle distorting Canada’s food economy

CHARLEBOIS: Cheap imports won’t fix Canada’s beef problem

Energy costs increased in March, and that matters more than most realize. Food prices don’t react instantly to energy shocks — they absorb them over time. Transportation costs adjust first, followed by production and processing. The full impact can take months to appear at retail.

Which means the increases we are seeing now in meat and vegetables may only be the beginning.

This is why the 4.4% grocery inflation rate should not be dismissed. It is not just a number — it is a signal. A signal that underlying cost pressures are still working their way through the system. A signal that volatility is becoming a defining feature of the food economy.

The narrative that food inflation is easing is, at best, incomplete. Yes, the overall rate has moderated. But the categories that matter most to consumers — the staples, the essentials — are still rising, driven by forces that are neither temporary nor easily reversed.

Canadians are not just dealing with inflation. They are adjusting to a new reality — one where meat remains expensive, vegetables swing unpredictably, and the cost of feeding a household is shaped as much by global energy markets as it is by what’s on the shelf.

Groceries are not getting cheaper. They’re getting more complicated.

– Sylvain Charlebois is director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University, co-host of The Food Professor Podcast and visiting scholar at McGill University

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