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The Quad is fading. India must now confront the limits of strategic ambiguity

Marco Rubio’s India visit left a lingering sense of disappointment over the Quad. The grouping is no longer the centrepiece of the US administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy.

Marco Rubio’s recent India visit was important for two reasons: to gauge the mood in Washington about US-India bilateral ties and to ascertain the future of the Quad.

For the first part, the visit reflected a degree of continuity in India-US ties. It was an attempt to restore trust in a partnership that, for nearly twenty-five years, has been built on a convergence of strategic interests and an unusual degree of bipartisan consensus in Washington. Even when scepticism over “how much to trust the US” persisted within sections of India’s strategic community, there remained a broad recognition of how deeply embedded the partnership had become. The breakdown of that trust stung when it happened under Trump’s second term.

This piece, however, is not merely about repeating that sentiment, but about four structural issues related to the Quad that now need closer attention. First, though, a quick run-through of why the US today remains India’s most consequential strategic partner.

Also Read: From Kolkata to Quad, Marco Rubio’s India visit sparks anxiety and mockery in China

The numbers speak for themselves. America is India’s largest export market, a major defence partner, and among the country’s biggest investors. It recently overtook Mauritius to become India’s second-largest source of FDI. The US is also a critical source of remittances, an often-understated but vital pillar for an economy where remittance inflows remain higher than FDI.

The relationship is also driven by technology, with the US emerging as India’s most important technological partner — from semiconductors and AI to critical and emerging technologies.

Despite political friction, the strategic architecture has continued to deepen. India recently renewed the long-term defence cooperation framework with Washington and, albeit later than some others, joined the US-led Pax Silica, an initiative to strengthen supply chains for AI-era technologies. Simultaneously, the US has become an increasingly important actor in India’s energy imports as well, particularly in the context of energy diversification after the Hormuz crisis.

There is also a renewed push on the economic front. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal’s visit to the United States was aimed at progressing negotiations on finalising the long overdue bilateral trade agreement.

The crux is that despite tariff disputes and Trump’s unpredictability, the India-US relationship continues to move through institutional continuity.

Plurilateral woes—the Quad

It is on the Quad that Rubio’s visit left a lingering sense of disappointment despite new add-ons.

Even as Rubio was in New Delhi, reports began circulating that India may not convene the annual Quad Leaders’ Summit later this year. In addition, the summit may no longer be convened as a standalone marquee event, the form it had acquired after the Quad was elevated to the leaders’ level in March 2021, and began drawing considerable global attention, and objection from Beijing.

India, which has held the Quad chair since 2024, was expected to host the long-pending summit but has cited scheduling constraints. It now appears prepared to pass the baton to Australia.

It does not require great strategic imagination to read between the lines. The earlier enthusiasm seems to have faded after Trump’s return to office, alongside the collapse of many earlier expectations and the growing caution with which New Delhi now approaches Washington. There are reasons, known well in Delhi circles, why Prime Minister Modi has carefully avoided an in-person meeting with Trump, either bilaterally or otherwise.

The Quad is no longer the centrepiece of the US administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy, and India must revisit four factors in........

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