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TMC’s home run in Presidency looks secure. Why the math everywhere else is on shaky ground

If the 'math' fails this time, it would have less to do with the voters changing their minds, and more to do with the very ground beneath all calculations being swept away. 

Elections in West Bengal have long been the centrepiece of India’s national political theatre. For the better part of fifteen years, the state has stood as a defiant opposition bastion—one of the “final frontiers” the BJP has pursued with relentless vigour. From a mere 4 per cent vote share in 2011 to nearly 40 per cent in 2024, the BJP has leapfrogged from fringes to become the state’s principal Opposition party, thus relegating the Left and Congress to relative ignominy.

Yet, beneath this rapid surge lies a sobering reality for the BJP. Across the last three major cycles—the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha polls and the 2021 State Assembly elections—the Hindutva wave appears to have met its breakwater, plateauing at 40 per cent vote share mark. In fact, if one were to map the 2024 Lok Sabha election results to the state’s 294 Assembly segments, the BJP would win 90 seats, while TMC would still form the government with 192 seats.

BJP’s victory in 90 Assembly segments in 2024 is its biggest return yet, and far better than its actual showing of 77 seats in the 2021 Assembly polls; however, it’s still a far cry from the magic figure of 148 to form the government. As TMC battles a triple anti-incumbency wave, the BJP would still have to bat out of its skin to win the polls.

In 2019, at the height of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity, the BJP won a whopping 18 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats and bagged 31 Assembly segments more than it did in 2024, giving Mamata Banerjee’s party an almighty scare. The numbers, unfortunately, have declined since, and the BJP’s fortunes face a recurring, frustrating pattern—a nationwide appeal that sparkles during the Lok Sabha contests but fizzles out in hand-to-hand combat in the trenches of state politics.

North Bengal consolidation remains key 

The Jalpaiguri division (comprising Darjeeling, Kalimpong, Cooch Behar, Jalpaiguri, and Alipurduars districts) has become the BJP’s crown jewel in Bengal, where it has maintained a........

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