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Opinion National Interest PoV 50-Word Edit

ThePrint On Camera Videos In Pictures

Society & Culture Around Town Book Excerpts Vigyapanti The Dating Story

More Judiciary Education YourTurn Work With Us Campus Voice

How did we miss the Vijay phenomenon in Tamil Nadu?

In a state where one of the two dominant Dravidian parties, the DMK and the AIADMK, has been in power since 1967, the TVK’s focus on change found clear resonance.

How did we miss an electoral revolution that was happening under our noses? Let’s be bare-knuckle honest. Any which way you look at this, the reasons would include a blinkered arrogance, a hopelessly ideologically driven media confirmation bias, and a complete misreading of the voting preferences of the youth.

The results of the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections were a shocker. I count myself very much a part of the list of a large number of people — self-styled poll pundits, political journalists, opinion, and exit pollsters — who totally failed to predict the outcome. I had not anticipated, for instance, that Vijay’s TVK would all but sweep Chennai or unseat so many senior DMK ministers, including Chief Minister MK Stalin, leaving the party scattered in the wreckage of its own mandate. 

At best, I can take a smidgeon of comfort in having said, in a social media post, that while I was confused about the outcome of this extraordinary election, the TVK’s vote share was probably being underestimated, and that the party’s performance could result in regional variations that could influence the result. Admittedly, it was a hesitant and somewhat vague comment, lacking in much analytical value. But, in hindsight, I am relieved it lacked that oracular precision now in favour with many pundits.

The larger question, of course, is why did so many of us get it so very wrong? The main reason was the belief that Vijay, Tamil Nadu’s leading box office star, would fail to convert his........

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