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The real risk in a ground operation in Iran. It’s not about US capability

Iran is not unfamiliar terrain for US planners. The scenario has been war-gamed for decades. But control of territory does not equate to control of the conflict.

The debate over a potential ground operation in Iran is not really about the United States’ capabilities. It is about time and perception. And in the same vein, about deception.

Prima facie, the military options would have three broad pathways. 

The first involves the continued use of Special Forces—targeted missions aimed at securing enriched uranium stockpiles or even enabling internal insurgencies.

The second contemplates a more tangible deployment of conventional forces—marines, airborne units, amphibious elements—to de-strangulate Iran’s weaponisation of the Strait of Hormuz.

The third combines the first two approaches.

Yet beneath these options lies a quieter consensus among specialists: Special operations are happening inside Iran and will continue irrespective of whether and how conventional forces will deploy.

Perils of all guns blazing

A full-scale invasion borders on implausible. Iran is not Iraq. It is four times larger and more complex. As former US Ambassador to Qatar Patrick Theros has observed, no state in the region is willing to host the kind of force required to occupy Iran, nor could Washington sustain the political cost. A campaign of that scale would push America in precisely the kind of “forever war” that US President Donald Trump pledged not to get into.

An airborne seizure of the top brass, closer to the Venezuela scenario, very much circulates in Iran’s local media. But it finds little credibility among serious analysts in Washington, Europe, or Israel, for Iran is not a personalised regime like Venezuela.

The reality remains that a US withdrawal is not on the table. In his latest address, Trump once again made confusing statements about ending the war and starting a military operation.

For all........

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