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Opinion National Interest PoV 50-Word Edit

ThePrint On Camera Videos In Pictures

Society & Culture Around Town Book Excerpts Vigyapanti The Dating Story

More Judiciary Education YourTurn Work With Us Campus Voice

Why hasn’t Iran lost the war yet? The reasons aren’t just oil and drones

The decapitation of leaders and heavy bombing, however widespread, may not be able to generate defeat and surrender. A long, crushing war may have to be waged for that.

The Iran war has entered its fourth week. In many quarters, the expectation was that Iran would not be able to take on the combined military strength of the US and Israel, even if limited to air power. That has clearly not happened. Iran has not won the war, but it has not lost. And there is a real chance it may not.

What explains Iran’s resilience? I can think of four reasons. Two have been extensively discussed, and two are simply not part of the mainstream debate, despite their analytic significance.

The hike in oil prices is the first reason to note.  A spectre of $150 a barrel is beginning to haunt oil markets. Thus far, $147.50 a barrel was the highest price witnessed. That was in June 2008.  A repetition would cause huge disruptions in the world economy.

The power to block commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the single most important cause of the price hike, thus gives Iran enormous leverage. Twenty per cent of the world’s oil trade and nearly half of India’s oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Nearly 20 per cent of the world’s natural gas exports also go through it. For India, the natural gas numbers are quite stark. Sixty per cent of India’s imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and as much as 85-90 per cent of its imports of liquified petroleum gas (LPG) come through the Strait of Hormuz.

Asia is not the only continent affected. Since Americans typically drive twice as long as drivers in Western Europe, oil prices seriously affect household budgets in the US. The mid-term elections are only a few months away. Astronomically high oil prices are not a risk any US government can take. That is why the US has temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil and, most paradoxically of all, also on Iranian oil.

Also read: Iran and Israel weren’t always enemies. In fact, they were allies

‘Weapons of the weak’

The second reason for Iran’s resilience comes from weaponry. As I wrote in my last column, drones have transformed the nature of modern warfare.........

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