AN UNEXPECTED SIDE effect of the tensions in the Gulf is that they could trigger a global food price shock.

The reason is simple: up to a third of the world’s trade in key fertiliser ingredients passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and if that shipping route is disrupted, fertiliser prices could spike dramatically. And when fertiliser prices spike, food prices follow.

At first glance, this might feel like a distant geopolitical story, something happening thousands of kilometres away. But in reality, it highlights something much closer to home. Ireland’s food security is far more fragile than we like to believe. For a country that prides itself on being an agricultural powerhouse, the truth is uncomfortable: we import most of the food that actually feeds us.

Netanyahu and Trump's attacks on Iran have caused chaos in the region, and beyond. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Ireland’s agriculture sector is worth around €19 billion a year. It is hugely important to our economy and to rural communities. But the vast majority of that production is geared towards export markets, and it is mainly focused on beef and dairy. In fact, Ireland exports around 90% of the food we produce.

Meanwhile, the food we rely on most in our daily diets – fruit and vegetables – are largely imported. Today, Ireland imports around 83% of its fruit and vegetables. That means the onions, tomatoes, peppers, broccoli and spinach leaves that fill supermarket shelves and are the backbone of our 365-days-a-year mono-diet are mostly coming from somewhere else.

Spain. The Netherlands. Morocco. Sometimes, and increasingly, much further away than that. India, South America and Africa.

A fragile food system

The system that underpins this model is incredibly complex – a marvel of modern logistics with food traversing the globe, mostly on container ships. It works smoothly most of the time. Until it doesn’t.

Our supermarkets operate on what economists call “just-in-time” supply chains. Food arrives almost exactly when it is needed. There is very little buffer in the system. The advantage is convenience and cheap food. The downside is vulnerability.

Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

The journalist Alfred Henry Lewis famously said that mankind is only ever nine meals (three days) from anarchy. Disruptions can come from anywhere: conflict, shipping blockages, fuel prices, fertiliser shortages, extreme weather related to climate change or crop failures.

We’ve seen glimpses of this fragility already in recent years. Brexit caused immediate disruption to food supply routes. The war in Ukraine sent fertiliser and grain prices soaring. Climate-driven droughts and floods are increasingly affecting harvests across Europe.

And now geopolitical tensions threaten one of the key maritime choke points through which fertiliser materials flow. Each of these shocks reminds us of the same thing: Ireland is more dependent on global supply chains for its everyday food than most people realise.

Ireland imports around 83% of its fruit and vegetables. Much of that food is transported from around the world. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Perhaps the most worrying part of this story is that Ireland once had a much stronger domestic fruit and vegetable sector. But over the past two decades, it has steadily shrunk. Today, there are just 74 commercial vegetable growers left in Ireland, down from around 600 back in the late 1990s.

Most have left the sector because it simply isn’t financially viable. Labour costs are rising. Energy costs are volatile. Weather risks are increasing. But the biggest driver of this mass exodus is aggressive price promotions from supermarkets that they use to drive footfall into their stores, and have permanently lowered the price of vegetables.

For many growers, the economics simply don’t stack up, and as they leave the sector, Ireland becomes even more dependent on imports. And the vicious cycle continues.

Ireland growing for itself

This doesn’t necessarily mean Ireland should stop exporting food. But if we care about food resilience and sovereignty – and we should – then we also need to think seriously about rebuilding our domestic horticulture sector.

That means supporting fruit and vegetable growers so they can earn a viable living (why they don’t have the same universal basic income that other farmers have is beyond me). It means giving the Agri-food regulator real teeth to ensure supermarkets stop aggressive price promotions of vegetables and commit to fair pricing for our growers. It means recognising that small, local, organic growers can also play an important role in combating supermarket hegemony.

It also means public procurement policies that prioritise Irish produce in schools, hospitals and public institutions. And above all, it means recognising that food security isn’t just about calories. It’s about access to fresh, nutritious food that supports public health.

Today there are just 74 commercial vegetable growers left in Ireland, down from around 600 back in the late 1990s. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

As consumers, we also have a role to play and more power than we think to affect change. When you buy vegetables from a local grower, a farmers’ market or a veg box scheme, you are doing more than simply buying food. You are strengthening a local food system and helping to create a more resilient supply chain that is less dependent on fragile global logistics.

At the same time, you get access to food that is typically fresher, more nutritious and more flavourful. In other words, supporting local growers is good for growers, good for the environment and good for your own health.

If fertiliser supply disruptions remind us of anything, it is how dependent modern agriculture has become on synthetic inputs. Rebuilding soil health through regenerative practices, composting, crop rotations and organic methods can reduce that dependency over time.

Healthy living soil is not just an environmental issue. It is a resilience issue. The more our food production depends on imported chemical inputs, the more vulnerable it is to global shocks.

The Gulf shipping story may or may not develop into a major crisis. Let’s hope not. But it is a wake-up call hiding in plain sight.

It serves as a useful reminder of how interconnected – and fragile – our food system has become. We have the climate, land and knowledge to produce far more of the food needed to feed our own population. If we want to build a truly resilient food system, we need to start thinking differently about how and where our food is produced.

Mick Kelly is the Founder of GIY. Our Farm – A GIY Story is currently on RTE 1 television on Tuesday nights at 8.30 pm. Visit www.giy.ie for more information.

*** The Explainer Podcast here at The Journal this week tackles this and other consumer issues: How bad could the looming energy crisis get? 

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