Journalists Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride have co-authored For and Against A United Ireland, in which they present the strongest arguments for and against Irish unification. In this extract from the book, they explain how, most importantly, the very tone of the debate will shape the decades after a border poll.

MANY PEOPLE STATE with unbending assurance that a referendum on Irish unity will be held within a short number of years. Others hold with equal confidence that a border poll will not be held for some decades. (We use the terms ‘referendum’ and ‘border poll’ interchangeably – the first tends to be used more often in the South, the second in the North. It is important to note, however, that in reality there would be two votes, one on each side of the border.) Neither side is sure of what it claims to know. But the possibility of a referendum is ever-present. It is not just on the horizon – it affects the way people think about a wide range of political, social and cultural issues in the here and now.

Yet it is shot through with uncertainty. The secretary of state for Northern Ireland retains the power to call a referendum at any point and for any reason. Much debate focuses on the Good Friday Agreement’s compulsion on that minister to consult voters if it seems to her or him that the public would vote for a united Ireland. But in an increasingly unpredictable world, we should be aware of the possibility that a mad or bad or impulsive secretary of state could decide at any moment to bring this debate to a head.

Anyone who cares for the future of this island ought to wish that such a campaign will be conducted so as to encourage honest debate and to enable both sides to believe they were able fairly and........

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