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The by-election results from Bihar and Madhya Pradesh on Monday (August 3) have given the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) a jolt. They serve as an uncomfortable reminder that its political dominance cannot be taken for granted, even in its most secure seats and states. The outcome has also raised questions about the durability of the Modi brand, the state of anti-incumbency, and the opposition’s ability to consolidate votes against the BJP. In a contest, in the Hindi belt where the BJP takes its lead for granted, these results have been shaped by wider political sentiment – the results suggest deeper dissatisfaction with the Modi regime than a single campaign setback.

For Modi, the concern is not only the loss of its safest seat but the signals it sends about future contests.

First, the BJP has lost the Bankipur assembly seat associated with its national president Nitin Nabin and his father – an urban constituency dominated by specific caste groups which made it one of the most secure seats for the party. The BJP has not lost this since 1995. The defeat is significant not only because of the family connection, but because it happened in a seat where the party deployed massive organisational strength, national leadership and huge resources. If the BJP can lose there, it suggests that even its strongest positions are vulnerable when public discontent hardens into an anti-BJP vote. The party can no longer rely on historical dominance or organisational strength. For a party that often projects itself as electorally unshakeable, that is a damaging message.

Second, the losses have happened in bypolls, where parties of the state governments in power are routinely supposed to win. These are states where BJP has been in power for over two decades and these are the states where the BJP, despite failing to get an overall majority, did very well in........

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