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On May 29, it was announced that the US and Iran were near agreement on a short-term deal – an MoU – that would see the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz followed by a 60 day window in which they would discuss other subjects, including the vexed nuclear issue. It was announced, too, that President Trump had convened a Situation Room meeting to give his final verdict on the deal.

But what we hear now is that Trump has introduced new and tougher conditions on what were already maximalist terms that had been projected earlier. For its part, Iran’s position is that the MoU has not been finalised and negotiations are still ongoing. The peculiar thing is that Trump believes that he is the victor and is doing Teheran a favour by offering a deal.

Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty.

In a post on Truth Social just before the Situation Room meeting, Trump laid out the demands as he saw them: “Iran must agree that they will never have a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb. The Hormuz Strait must immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions.” He went on to add that the US would recover the enriched uranium “in coordination with the Islamic Republic or Iran, plus International Atomic Energy Agency, and DESTROYED. No money will be exchanged, until further notice. “

The whole world is watching this process play out with a sense of bewilderment. After months of catastrophic conflict that began with a massive joint US-Israeli decapitation strike on February 28—killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—the regional landscape lies in ruins. Millions are displaced, supply chains are broken, and crude hovers near $100 a barrel.

The moment is particularly fraught for India which has seen the fourth hike in fuel prices in the past month and, the rupee is near the Rs 100=$1 level. India gets some 50% of its oil and LNG through Hormuz and about 90% of its LPG. Equally important, fertilizer raw material in the form of ammonia, phosphate rock and sulphur as well as finished fertilizer like diammonium phosphate and phosphoric acid originate or pass through the Gulf region. In addition, a range of chemical products used for the pharma industry, too, depend on the Gulf.

The draft agreement allegedly includes provisions to end the parallel war between Israel and Hezbollah, alongside mutual promises of non-interference. Yet, just........

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