From WMDs in Iraq to Iranian Nuclear Vests: How Threat Narratives Shape Wars
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Speaking during a cabinet meeting at the White House on March 26, US Vice President JD Vance justified the United States attacks on Iran by citing the risk of Iran using “nuclear suicide vests” to “kill tens of thousands“. That claim is far more ludicrous than the previous lie that Iraq possessed “Weapons of Mass Desctruction” (WMD). At least the WMD theory was purveyed using “sexed up” intelligence dossier on Iraq. In contrast, Vance’s warning does not attempt to even seek a basis – scientific, technological or intelligence.
Nuclear devices can broad belong to two categories: a test-device (“bomb in the basement“) or a deliverable nuclear weapon. The former is something that can initiate an uncontrolled nuclear fission reaction and could be as large as a small room. The latter is a sophisticated, robust, reliable and miniaturised nuclear device that has the warhead, safety-arming-implosion-initiator mechanisms, tamper/reflector and casing – all capable of withstanding travel atop a missile at supersonic speed and re-entry heat.
The path from even 90% weapons-grade Uranium (U-235) to a deliverable nuclear warhead entails surmounting very significant, time-consuming, scientific, technical and engineering hurdles, followed by testing. This is why experts know that the fabrication of a deliverable nuclear weapon requires a comprehensive commitment of national resources, apart from a fully functional industrial base. And reliable nuclear weapons cannot be miniaturised to “suitcase” size – leave aside a wearable vest.
According to the May 2025 report of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has around 408 kg of U-235 enriched to 60%. The IAEA and the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists assess that, theoretically, a crude nuclear weapon can be fabricated with about 41.7 kg of 60% enriched U-235. On the other hand, a reliable compact........
