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Amid reports of a ceasefire extension announced by Donald Trump, the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as a critical maritime artery in an increasingly contested geopolitical locale after the commencement of the Iran war. This narrow passage connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and carries over one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies. Any disruption here causes immediate shockwaves through energy markets, shipping networks, and global inflation.

The geopolitical situation in the Strait of Hormuz now shows growing instability, characterised by threats, intimidation, and competing claims of control. Iran has, at times, declared the strait open, even as it has seized vessels and fired at ships for alleged violations of maritime rules. There are indications that even neutral commercial vessels have faced interference, raising serious concerns among shipping operators. On several days, traffic has been limited to roughly 15 to 20 ships (from over 100 shops in normal times), many using alternative or Iran-designated routes. Even that has been disrupted frequently. This is surely an indication that passage through the strait is no longer safe and assured, but increasingly subject to conditions and risk.

Meanwhile, the United States has imposed what is described as a “distant blockade” targeting Iranian ports rather than the strait itself. U.S. naval forces have positioned themselves along a wide arc stretching from the Iran-Pakistan coast to the Oman-UAE corridor. Ships heading toward Iranian ports have been warned or turned away, with more than twenty vessels reportedly diverted in a short span. This approach allows Washington to exert pressure without formally closing the strait, thereby maintaining a claim to protecting global navigation. Of course, Tel Aviv is well behind Washington to offset any Iranian strategic gains in the region.

These developments point to a larger struggle, which remained unaddressed for quite a long time. Iran seeks to leverage its geographic position to gain political and economic advantage, while the United States aims to preserve open access and limit Iran’s regional influence. The result is a tense environment where control is uneven, risks are high, and the possibility of miscalculation is ever present.

The strait has thus become a flashpoint where military power, economic........

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