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Which Trump-Supporting States Will Feel Canada’s Tariff Fury?

Republicans may lose support in the midterm elections in key battlegrounds

The complete index of American products subject to Canadian retaliatory tariffs on September 8 include more than 600 different entries. Searching for patterns can drive you to madness. Butterfly nets will be hit with a 50 percent tariff. So will eye make-up preparations and fish egg incubators. Track suits are also among the items facing the trade fury of Prime Minister Mark Carney, alongside swimming pools, paddling pools, video game consoles, and a buffet’s worth of tableware and cheeses.

In retaliation, Canada has launched tariffs to match American counterparts dollar-for-dollar

Some tariffs will hit industries in red swing states particularly hard

Ahead of the US midterm elections, both Republican and Democratic politicians are speaking out against these tariffs

The tariffs are meant to match American counterparts dollar-for-dollar, targeting $27.6 billion in products. When asked about the decision-making process, industry minister Mélanie Joly said some goods are meant to hurt Trump-supporting states, though she declined to say which. In other words, the United States may be a behemoth, but Canada can concentrate the pain in sensitive corners of the country.

Despite the minister’s demurral, the Associated Press and Newsweek were quick to highlight the political implications of the tariffs ahead of the midterm elections. States with Republican senators, such as Maine, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, and Texas, all have substantive trade relationships with Canada—and are considered possible battleground states. Some experts are calling the issue “a political trap for Republicans,” with Democrats already seizing on the matter as a talking point.

Could the trade war lead to cracks in Republican support for Trump or lead to more Democrats in power come November? Here’s a look at some of the red states vulnerable to Canada’s new round of tariffs and the industries that may feel the most hardship.

Local reporting indicates that Republican senator Susan Collins and Democratic representative Chellie Pingree are now approaching Trump “from the same ground”—something of a rarity. Collins has come out against the new tariffs, calling them a mistake and pointing to the lobsters, blueberries, and lumber imports that end up on the Canadian market. According to the Eastern Border Transportation Coalition, imports from Canada accounted for 68 percent of Maine’s cross-border trade between 2015 and 2024. Altogether, the........

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