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The Roller-Coaster Price of Oil Is Bad for Almost Everyone

These volatile numbers make everything more expensive

Over the past month, the price of oil has been bouncing around like a lie detector machine. The joint United States–Israel attack on Iran that began in February triggered the biggest one-month price gain in oil’s history. The price of Brent crude has surged and plummeted with every twist in the war.

The Iran war has recently increased the volatility of crude oil prices globally

Global financial institutions have consistently identified oil spikes as a major driver of inflation

Risk of dependence on other nations’ oil has caused some countries to expand renewable energy use

Just like in 2022, when Russian president Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine and cut Europe off from Russian oil and gas, sending oil soaring, the Iran war has yielded two wildly opposing conclusions about humanity’s relationship to oil. The first: Hooray, the price of oil is up—let’s cash in by producing more! And the second: Oh no, the price of oil is up—time to speed up the energy transition!

Both statements have merit if you’re an oil-bearing nation. There is indeed a lot of money to be made at prices like these. And everything’s about to get more expensive. Again.

This simple trade-off—high oil prices generate both wealth and inflation—is so obvious you’d think it could go without saying. You’d be wrong. Instead of highlighting the connection, journalists and politicians have tended to treat the two sides of the ledger as if they occupy separate realities.

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