AP — The investigative group Bellingcat says newly released video “appears to contradict” US President Donald Trump’s claim that Iran was responsible for an explosion at an Iranian school that killed over 165 people at the start of the war raging in the Mideast.

It comes as mounting evidence points to US culpability for the February 28 strike, which hit a school adjacent to a Revolutionary Guard base in Minab, Iran, in the country’s southern Hormozgan Province.

Experts interviewed by The Associated Press, citing satellite image analysis, say the school was likely struck amid a quick succession of bombs dropped on the compound.

The video shared by Bellingcat is a three-second clip of a video taken the day the school was struck and circulated Sunday by Iran’s semiofficial Mehr news agency.

The video shows a munition falling on a building, sending a dark plume into the air that mingles with smoke that likely came from earlier strikes on the compound. Trevor Ball, a Bellingcat researcher, geolocated the video to a site near the school, something also done by the AP.

Ball identified the munition as a Tomahawk cruise missile — which only the US is known to possess in the war. It’s the first evidence of a munition used in the strike.

New video footage shows a US Tomahawk missile hitting an IRGC facility in Minab, Iran, on Feb 28, showing for the first time that the US struck the area. The footage also shows smoke already rising from the vicinity of the girls’ school, where 175 people were reportedly killed. pic.twitter.com/4jBXrNcRJO — Trevor Ball (@Easybakeovensz) March 8, 2026

New video footage shows a US Tomahawk missile hitting an IRGC facility in Minab, Iran, on Feb 28, showing for the first time that the US struck the area. The footage also shows smoke already rising from the vicinity of the girls’ school, where 175 people were reportedly killed. pic.twitter.com/4jBXrNcRJO

— Trevor Ball (@Easybakeovensz) March 8, 2026

Complicating any assessment of the incident is the lack of images of bomb fragments from the blast. No independent agency has reached the site during the war to investigate.

When asked by a reporter Saturday whether the US was responsible for the blast, which killed mostly children, Trump responded, without providing evidence: “No, in my opinion, based on what I’ve seen, that was done by Iran.” Trump added that Iran is “very inaccurate” with their munitions. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth quickly chimed in to say the US was investigating.

Several factors point to a US strike.

One is the launching of an assessment of the incident by the US military. According to the Pentagon’s instructions on processes for mitigating civilian harm, an assessment is launched after a group of investigators makes an initial determination that the US military may bear culpability.

An American official told the AP that the strike was likely from the US. The official spoke anonymously because they were not authorized to comment publicly on the sensitive matter.

Another is the location of the school — next to the Revolutionary Guard base and close to barracks for a naval unit. The US military has focused on naval targets and acknowledged strikes in the province, including one in the vicinity of the school.

Israel, which has denied conducting the strike, has focused on areas of Iran closer to Israel and hasn’t reported any strikes south of Isfahan, 800 kilometers (500 miles) away. The US is operating warships in the Arabian Sea, including the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, within range of the school.

Neither the US military’s Central Command (CENTCOM) nor the IDF immediately replied to requests for comment Monday from the AP on Bellingcat’s analysis.

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