Regardless of the legitimacy of Israel’s objectives in the Iran War, and regardless of how the conflict ultimately ends, the war has already exposed critical blind spots in the strategic calculus of Israel’s political leadership, military command, intelligence community, and the public itself. These miscalculations are not abstract academic errors. They have had immediate operational consequences, long‑term diplomatic costs, and profound implications for Israel’s national security. Understanding how these errors emerged—and why they persisted despite clear warning signs—is essential if Israel is to avoid compounding the damage in the months and years ahead.

Israel cannot meaningfully assess the strategic failures of February 28th, 2026, because it has not yet been able to confront the failures of October 7th, 2023. The political and security establishment remains locked in a defensive posture, still struggling to acknowledge the intelligence, operational, and doctrinal breakdowns that made October 7 possible. When a system is still fighting over the narrative of its last catastrophe, it cannot yet absorb the lessons of the next one. Strategic learning requires sequence. Until the October 7 reckoning occurs—openly, honestly, and without political interference—the deeper miscalculations that shaped Israel’s approach to Iran will remain unexamined, uncorrected, and dangerously active.

The first and most consequential failure was the collapse of the distinction between what we wish to be true and what is structurally possible. For years, Israeli political discourse has been saturated with the hope that the Iranian regime was on the verge of collapse. The........

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