The National Religious Right Wins in Israel and America Experiences a Dual Electoral Outcome, Where Mega Republicans and Progressive Democrats Win

These dual scenarios would fundamentally disrupt and transform American Jewish life, ending the political and communal order that has sustained this community for several generations, namely strong identification with American liberal democracy, a broadly bipartisan relationship with Israel, and confidence that Jews have allies in both major parties.

Israel’s election is now set for October 27, 2026. The central issue is not merely whether a “right-wing” government wins, but what it subsequently does—particularly concerning annexation, settlements and settler violence, Palestinian displacement, judicial independence, religious pluralism, and the continuation or conclusion of war.

The likely American Jewish response would be differentiation, not simple abandonment, as many Jews would increasingly separate their attachment to Israel from support of its government. That distinction already exists. In 2024, 89% of American Jews viewed the Israeli people favorably, but only 54% viewed the Israeli government favorably. More recent Pew data put favorable views of Israel among Jewish Americans at 64%—still a majority but no longer overwhelming. Pew’s 2024 findings and its 2026 findings show this widening distinction.

A further-right government would probably produce four effects:

Accelerated Generational Distancing: Younger, liberal and less religious Jews would find it increasingly difficult to treat Israel as a positive expression of their Jewish values. Some would disengage; others would remain intensely engaged through Israeli opposition groups, human-rights........

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