In 1996, the New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman proposed what he called the Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention: no two countries with a McDonald’s had ever gone to war with each other. For decades the theory held. Then in 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine — and McDonald’s responded by withdrawing from Russia entirely, selling its 850 Russian restaurants, which were rebranded almost immediately as “Vkusno i tochka” (Tasty and That’s It). The theory, it turned out, had its own enforcement mechanism: start a war, lose your McDonald’s. Friedman was vindicated in a way he never anticipated.

Which brings us to Israel and Lebanon — another apparent exception to the theory that is, upon closer inspection, not an exception at all. Both countries have McDonald’s. Both have spent four decades in a state of more or less continuous conflict. The reconciliation is straightforward: Israel was never really at war with Lebanon. It was at war with Syria and multiple paramilitary groups including Hezbollah that were operating within........

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