Many people I speak to who support the war support it for one of two reasons:

They believe it is necessary to stop Iran from having nuclear weapons

They believe it will create regime change in Iran

Unlike in June, the official line from the Israeli and American governments is not that Iran was at a critical point in its efforts to develop nuclear weapons and that preventing that is the war’s catalyst and primary goal.

By Bibi’s own implicit admission, there is no plan in place to replace the Iranian regime. The goal is to inflict damage to weaken the regime, and then it’s up to the Iranian people to rise up and finish the job. However, this doesn’t account for the possibility that the people of Iran do not rise up, whether due to apathy, fear, support of the regime, or a feeling of being depleted after the recent brutal repression of anti-government protests. It also assumes that there will not be a civil war, and that the new regime will be better both for democracy/human rights and for Israel. But if Israel has no plan for who replaces the current Iranian regime, it’s possible that the new regime will be equally bad, especially if it is created out of the chaos of war, where the strongest and most repressive often rise to the top. A recent Israeli official quoted in a Times of Israel article explained that the government has nobody on the ground in Iran who they have identified as a potential replacement they could work with, making regime change an unrealistic prospect. After all, it’s hard to change regimes without installing a new one, and that requires having a partner you’re willing to work with to make them the new government.*

I would also add that both of these assertions are premised on us winning the war. I believe in general that starting a war on the premise that one will win is risky, for there is always the possibility that one will lose. I find that often when I speak with supporters of the war, they see our victory as inevitable, whether due to our military superiority (especially when it comes to our air power) or to our role as God’s chosen nation. I would counter that a) militarily superior forces have lost wars to military inferior forces before b) The Torah prescribes exile from the Land of Israel as the punishment for certain sins and we’ve been exiled twice before; God’s chosenness does not mean that we win every battle. It is a long-term promise, that even if we lose the battle, one day God will send the Mashiach and redeem us.

I have been thinking recently about how much it impacts one’s experience of the war, whether they believe they are running to a shelter or their safe room** because they believe the war is necessary to protect their safety and the safety of their country in the long run, or because they believe the war will free millions in Iran from oppression, or whether one believes that the war is a foolish mistake at best and impacted by the government’s political considerations at worst.

In those moments, these political beliefs aren’t merely theoretical; they become our lived experience of this violent reality. Hoping for peaceful days ahead.

*The same problem that plagued Israel when it came to replacing Hamas in Gaza. It had no plan for who would replace Hamas and refused to work with any of the proposed partners, such as a reformed PA -and lo and behold, after 2 years of war, Hamas is still the government of Gaza.

**Already two vastly different experiences. Whether one has a safe room in one’s home, a miklat in one’s building, or relies on a public miklat, as well as the frequency of missile attacks in the area one lives in, are major differentiators in people’s quality of life right now.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)