Mohammed bin Salman has spent a decade projecting inevitability. He would modernise Saudi Arabia, diversify its economy, defeat the Houthis, contain Iran and establish the Kingdom as the dominant Arab power. The domestic transformation is real. The religious establishment has been weakened, women’s participation in the economy has increased, tourism and entertainment have expanded and Saudi society is considerably more open.

His strategic record is much less impressive. The Houthis were not defeated. Qatar was not forced into submission. The murder of Jamal Khashoggi became an international humiliation. Iran remains a threat. Saudi oil infrastructure has proved vulnerable. NEOM has been scaled back from some of its original ambitions. Normalisation with Israel remains stalled.

Now MbS has another answer: the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement with Turkey and Pakistan. The question is whether this is a new security architecture or another attempt to compensate for the failures of Saudi power.

MbS’s central problem is partly of his own making. He has concentrated Saudi political authority around himself to an extent rarely seen in the modern Kingdom. In 2017, Mohammed bin Nayef was removed as crown prince and replaced by MbS. MbN had controlled the Interior Ministry, led Saudi counterterrorism efforts and developed close relations with American intelligence.

Months later came the Ritz-Carlton purge. Princes, former ministers and leading businessmen were detained in what Riyadh called an anti-corruption campaign. Whatever its stated purpose, its political effect was clear: independent centres of wealth and influence were broken and potential rivals intimidated. MbS emerged dominant. But centralisation carries a price. When one man controls the system, its failures become his failures.

Yemen is the most obvious example. Saudi Arabia intervened in 2015 with overwhelming financial and technological superiority. The Houthis were expected to be pushed out of Sana’a and the internationally recognised government restored. More than a decade later, the Houthis remain entrenched across northern Yemen. Worse, they acquired the ability to strike Saudi territory with missiles and........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)