Wider Consequences of the Israel/U.S. vs Iran War
Most eyes are glued to the mutual blows in the current war. Some pundits ask how it will end, militarily and regime-wise. But there’s another dimension, what I would call the “outer circle” of the war’s effects. In the long-term, these are just as important as the war’s military outcome.
First and foremost, unless the war ends in some sort of debacle for the U.S. (hard to imagine at this stage), its standing is reinforced as a major power that is willing to put its money where its (leader’s) mouth is. To be sure, President Trump is notorious for his capricious decision-making, but that makes it all the more difficult for America’s opponents to assess whether he would carry out any threats, ensuring that they act with even greater caution.
Where does this play out most clearly? As far away from the Middle East as one could imagine: Taiwan! The main goal of China’s ongoing military buildup is to threaten and possibly invade what it considers to be an integral part of China. What’s America’s interest in getting involved in such a conflict? Nothing short of preventing a disaster for the U.S. economy, as most of the world’s highest quality, advanced AI and graphics microchips, are manufactured in Nvidia’s partner Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). In case you haven’t heard of Nvidia, it’s the most highly valued company in the entire world: close to $4.5 trillion (yes, trillion dollars). One doesn’t need to be paranoid to understand what a Communist Chinese takeover of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry would mean for the entire American (and western) high-tech economy.
America passed a law back in........
