Iran’s latest message on the Strait of Hormuz is revealing. The Head of Iran’s National Security Council Mohsen Rezaei, former commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who was named on August 9, 2026, as the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council stated that Tehran will not reopen Hormuz even if an Iran – Oman arrangement is finalised suggests that the internal debate inside Iran is becoming more visible. It also indicates that the present period of calm should not be mistaken for a settlement.

The Iranian political system appears to be entering a more complicated phase. Different centres of power are beginning to speak with greater confidence. The political establishment and the harder-line factions may still share the same broad objective of resisting American and Israeli pressure. However, they may increasingly disagree on tactics, negotiations, economic costs, and the acceptable level of confrontation. Therefore, recent statements from Iranian leaders deserve close attention.

To recall, the Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian earlier and recent claim that he had met Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, a nearly seven-hour meeting and discussed the economy, sanctions, employment, housing, the market, national unity, and Iran’s response to the conflict. Mr. President also said that Khamenei emphasised preserving “unity and cohesion.” It means that unity is shaken. The seven hour meeting with a seriously injured person is also doubtful. There was already uncertainty about the Supreme Leader’s physical condition and his ability to exercise normal political authority. The President’s statement therefore had a political purpose beyond simply confirming a meeting.

The statement of Mr Mohsen Rezaei creates a different impression. It suggests that Iran’s internal political divisions are becoming more open. The political establishment, particularly its less radical sections, appears more assertive than it was earlier particularly after first phase of MOU. This does not mean that the radicals have lost control. They remain powerful. They still influence the security system, the ideological establishment, and Iran’s regional strategy. But the balance inside the........

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