During more than four decades as a psychotherapist, I learned to be cautious whenever someone asked, “Why does he keep doing that?” Because “why” questions often invite speculation. They can tempt us to project our own assumptions onto someone else’s behavior. A more useful question is frequently, “What maintains that behavior?” Rather than searching for hidden motives, it asks what repeatedly reinforces the pattern we observe.

That distinction may have something to teach us about the way the West approaches Iran.

Much of Western foreign policy assumes that states ultimately respond to the same broad incentives: Economic opportunity encourages cooperation; sanctions impose costs. Military force raises the price of ongoing aggression. These tools have often proven effective. But they also assume we have correctly identified what the other side values most.

When that assumption is wrong, even well-designed policies may produce disappointing results.

Israel’s experience with Hamas offers one example. For........

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