Lebanon is once again facing a crucial moment. In March 2026, Hezbollah launched missiles into Israel, thereby opening a new front of the war, following the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The fragile political, economic, and security environment of Lebanon has exacerbated the country’s political and economic crisis, which has since intensified. For the first time since the Lebanese Shiite party initiated the war against Israel in October 2023 by attacking in support of Hamas and later by supporting Iran in March this year, Tehran has directly intervened to rescue it. In response to an Israeli airstrike on a southern suburb of Beirut on the evening of June 7, the Islamic Republic of Iran launched 11 ballistic missiles that were directed toward northern Israel. Despite the Iranians’ efforts, the intense Israeli assaults have diminished Hezbollah’s military capabilities up to a significant extent. It is exceedingly challenging for Hezbollah to replenish its strategic arsenals in the absence of a Syrian “land bridge,” although it now produces drones locally.

Until recently, Iran’s support made the Shia Islamist group the most potent non-state actor in the Middle East. It possessed an extensive arsenal of rockets and missiles, as well as tens of thousands of foot soldiers. Nevertheless, the........

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