The second Trump administration’s approach to Israel represents a fascinating case study in how electoral promises collide with geopolitical realities. While Trump’s first term was marked by dramatic gestures—moving the embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, brokering the Abraham Accords—his return to power comes at a moment when the Middle East has fundamentally shifted, and American strategic interests demand a more nuanced calculus.

Trump’s transactional worldview, often dismissed by foreign policy elites as crude pragmatism, may ironically prove more constraining for Israeli ambitions than the idealistic liberal internationalism it replaced. The businessman-turned-president understands leverage, and Israel’s position—while still formidable—is no longer the unassailable strategic asset it once appeared to American policymakers.

The Gaza conflict and its aftermath have exposed the costs of unlimited backing for Israeli military operations. American public opinion, particularly among younger voters and minorities who form crucial parts of the Republican coalition Trump is trying to expand, has grown increasingly skeptical of blank-check support for any foreign nation, including Israel. This........

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