Tehran is following its usual script. Fresh Iranian drone and missile strikes have hit Bahrain (including some near the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Manama) while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps threatens to set ships on fire in the Strait of Hormuz. Ironically, in parallel, the Mullahs’ regime is now offering a “new regional security framework” led by them. This way, Tehran puts military pressure on Abraham Accords states and then offers an Iranian-led alternative designed to push Israel and the emerging “Abrahamic NATO” security architecture aside.

The cost of Iran’s blackmail is already visible in shipping flows. Before the current escalation, roughly 20.7 million barrels per day of crude, condensate, and petroleum products transited the Strait of Hormuz—about one-fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption. Iranian mine-laying, ship seizures, and repeated threats to close the waterway drove that volume down to 14.6 million barrels per day during the first quarter of 2026. Bahrain, the UAE, and other Gulf exporters absorbed the revenue shock immediately.

That is what makes Tehran’s latest proposal so revealing. Iran is recycling the language of its earlier Hormuz Peace Initiative, which calls for the Strait to be managed exclusively by littoral states. In practice, that formula sidelines Israel and limits any meaningful outside security role. The timing leaves little doubt about Tehran’s purpose: these offers followed documented........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)