In my last post, I argued that the war with Iran should not be measured against unattainable notions of total victory, but against the strategic realities that existed before October 7 and before the United States entered the conflict. By that measure, I concluded that Israel and the United States had improved their strategic position notwithstanding the uncertainties and imperfections of war. I reached that conclusion before the MOU or its terms were released.

Having now read the MOU, my earlier analysis seems harder to defend as to the United States. At a minimum, US deterrence has been damaged, and I am “out on a limb” in maintaining that the US did not suffer a substantial strategic defeat. The limb will break if the MOU’s terms become the final agreement and are fully implemented. But we are not there now and will likely never be.

On its face, the MOU is very favorable to Iran. It contemplates sweeping sanctions relief, the return of frozen Iranian assets, a massive reconstruction fund, Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, and a reduced American regional presence. In return, Iran principally repeats its longstanding claim that it does not seek nuclear weapons – a claim it has made for years while doing the exact opposite. This gross imbalance – the appearance of almost a complete US surrender – is the elephant in the room of my prior argument. But it is not the whole story.

The real question is not whether the reported MOU favors Iran. It plainly does. The question is whether it is proper to treat an interim diplomatic framework as the final verdict on the war’s outcome. While still out on a limb, I maintain that the outcome is not US surrender.

I hasten to add that Israel’s gains remain intact: it is strategically much stronger than before October 7 and has achieved regional dominance. It also now knows it cannot rely on the US and must become much more militarily independent. Better to know and act now than suffer later.  This may be the most important “silver lining” of what now seems a diplomatic disaster.

But drafting........

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