The Middle East is entering another period of strategic consolidation, and Israel should not assume that yesterday’s alignments will protect it tomorrow. Thus, Israel has a long-term strategic interest in the emergence of an independent, territorially coherent and politically united Kurdistan. Such a state would not merely add another friendly flag to the region. It could alter the balance of power across the northern Middle East, constrain several states that have historically opposed Kurdish and Israeli national aspirations, and create the basis for one of the region’s most consequential strategic partnerships.

The newly signed Mecca Joint Defence Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan illustrates the direction of travel. Its public language is deliberately defensive and that is an armed attack on one signatory is to be treated as an attack on all, while Ankara has stated that the agreement “targets no country” and is open to other “brotherly countries.” Yet political analysis cannot end with the wording of a communiqué. It is not expected that such a pact to declare itself anti-Israel. However, if enlarged and institutionalised, it could develop into a Muslim security bloc whose combined military, financial and political weight would significantly narrow Israel’s strategic room for manoeuvre. Pakistan does not recognise Israel, and Türkiye’s relationship with Israel has deteriorated sharply. Even where Arab governments have normalised relations with Israel, normalisation has not erased the deeper regional antagonisms surrounding Israel and the unresolved Palestinian question. The Mecca pact therefore........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)