History is replete with revolutions and coups when military forces ousted a ruling government and took control of the reigns of power. From Julius Caesar to Idi Amin, from West Africa to South America, the instances are too numerous to count.

Since the first day of the latest attack on the senior leadership of Iran, none of the pundits or “expert commentators” has been able to paint a coherent picture of what is actually going on inside the opaque bubble of Iran. What they have done is to swallow the story the Iranian powerbase has been pushing out, that there has been a steady and ordered transition of power since the deaths of the top echelon of the Iranian government. “Statements” read in the name of the so-called “new Supreme Leader” have been taken at face value as a mark of the progression from the old ayatollah to his son. But somehow, the stories don’t gel. The gaps tell a more coherent story than the text. 

For what it’s worth, the following is my “non-expert” assessment of what actually happened in the immediate aftermath of the first wave of Israeli strikes on February 28th.

Israeli strikes killed most of the top level of Iran’s leadership, including several of the leading generals in the IRGC.

Mid-level generals in the IRGC seized the opportunity to free themselves from the control freaks who ruled Iran by order of the Messenger, which had sent the country back to the middle ages, refusing to accept any decisions unless they adhered to the religious principles that were the be-all and end-all of every aspect of Iranian life. Not logical ideas or rational moves, but everything by the Book!

Given the raging war, the new ruler (or rulers) correctly decided that it was not a good time to throw their hats into the visible ring, for fear of igniting massive civil unrest. So they concocted the story of the trio of “interim rulers” who would oversee the appointment of the new supreme leader. This step bought the IRGC 10+ days of relative anonymity in which they could consolidate their position, eliminate any potential threats, and start to direct the war on their own terms, not by the command of the Prophet’s spokesmen.

The first sign of this came when the “president” of Iran made a public apology to the neighboring Arab states for Iran’s attacks, and vowed to stop. Within minutes, the IRGC completely overturned his announcement, firing massive barrages of drones and missiles into the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Next day, the “president” bowed and scraped in front of the cameras, trying to explain that they had misunderstood his words.

In the following days, the “election” of Khomeini’s son as the new leader was announced. Never seen in any leadership position before that, his only claim to fame, besides his family connection, was that he had “fought” in the Iran/Iraq war – not exactly a total victory for Iran at that time. No sign of the new leader, not a live word or picture, was shown on the state-run media. All they showed was people dancing in the streets carrying pictures of the glorious son and his predecessors.

On 11th March, a statement was read on Iran channels, purportedly directly from the hand of the new leader. It was obviously drafted by IRGS, since it contained almost word-for-word the same message that the IRGC spokesmen had been pumping out.

Logical conclusion – Khomeini’s son was killed in the same attack by Israel, or was effectively knocked around so badly that he was not ever going to be a player. IRGC second-level generals took the opportunity to get rid of the mullahs and take control of the whole government. They needed a screen to hide their machinations from their public and from the enemy, so they played out the fantasy of an ordered progression of power. The woke West eagerly sucked up the story line and rebroadcast it as the “real truth.”

Prediction: Within a few weeks, there will be an announcement that the new “supreme leader” has been killed in another raid by the evil enemy, and so the whole scenario will play out again. Everyone gains. Bibi and Trump will have made good on their promise to put a target on the back of whoever takes up the reign of power, and the IRGC gets another cycle of a few months to cement their position. 

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)