Oil Outage and The Cost of (Missing) Context
I held this piece for three weeks to avoid reacting to the fog of war.
In the past, societies accepted far more than higher oil prices. During WWII, Americans and Europeans lived under food rationing for years. Civilians adjusted daily life around national survival. Industrial production was completely redirected.
That level of sacrifice was understood as normal. Today, people are spoiled rotten.
Today’s reaction to a temporary rise in oil prices feels detached from reality. A short-lived spike in fuel costs is framed as a crisis, more important than the right for women to show hair or all people to dance in public.
The recent spike in oil prices during the Iran conflict was widely presented as a major economic shock. But in reality, it was brief. It should be compared to sustained shocks like the sustained energy shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Before calling the current spike extraordinary, ask how it compares to previous oil shocks. This increase is not even among the top five........
