Here is a growing impression in the crisis between Washington and Tehran: when Donald Trump speaks, threatens, warns, or raises his voice, Iran no longer seems to react with the same concern as before. The American tone remains harsh. Words remain powerful. The military threat remains real. But the psychological effect seems less strong.

This is perhaps one of the most important elements of the moment.

But the analysis is correct: Iran does not despise American power. Tehran knows that the US can strike quickly, at a distance, and with great force. They can target military infrastructure, logistical networks, bases, sensitive sites, and regional relays. America’s military superiority remains overwhelming. The Iranian regime knows it, and so do the Revolutionary Guards.

But in geopolitics, raw power is not enough. What matters is the credibility of its use. A threat doesn’t just scare because it’s spectacular. It’s scary if the opponent believes that it will go all the way.

This is precisely where Tehran believes it sees a loophole.

Donald Trump uses the threat as a political instrument. He dramatizes, puts pressure, speaks loudly, and creates a balance of power. That is his method. But Iran has learned to observe not just what Trump says but also what he does after speaking. And above all, what he probably doesn’t want to do.

Tehran seems to have........

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