Thomas Crombie Schelling was an American economist and professor of foreign policy. In his major work “The Strategy of Conflict” (1960), his starting point is a counter-intuitive observation: in a conflict, it is not force that decides, but the communication of the resolution. Rational actors rarely go to war with each other because what they are interested in is changing the adversary’s behaviour at lower cost. Here are its five foundations, along with their direct interpretation in the current context.

First pillar: coercion through inflicted suffering. Schelling distinguishes between two military logics: “brute violence” (destroying the enemy’s capabilities) and “coercion” (inflicting enough pain to change his behaviour). The US naval blockade ruled on April 13 illustrates exactly this logic. D. Trump has ordered a ban on all ships entering or leaving Iranian ports, calling Iran’s position on the Straits of War “extortion”. It’s an economic message: continuing to exist under this pressure will become unbearable.

Second pillar: the credibility of the threat. For T. Schelling,........

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