President Trump’s statement about an immediate Israel-Iran ceasefire raised the central question of the moment: if peace is truly close, why is the region suddenly moving toward escalation?

The answer may lie less in the missiles themselves and more in what each side is trying to prove before the diplomatic framework hardens.

For months, the core negotiations have largely been between Washington and Tehran, with Israel deeply involved strategically, but not necessarily the direct negotiating counterpart. Iran does not want the talks reduced to a narrow nuclear deal. It wants the negotiations to recognize Iran as a regional power whose influence runs through Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and beyond.

That is why Lebanon suddenly became so important.

From Israel’s perspective, the equation is simple: if Hezbollah fires at Israel, Israel retaliates. Stop the fire, and the retaliation stops. Israel’s growing message has been that continued attacks from Lebanon........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)