As the United States is concentrating its military forces in the Middle East, the world waits for answers to two questions. First, will America strike the Iranian regime, or will it be satisfied with pressuring it into making certain concessions? Second, if America does strike, will it aim for the removal of the regime, or merely for the weakening of its capabilities? It is in the interest of the US, and indeed of the whole free world, for Washington to take aim at the very existence of the regime sitting in Tehran.

The last few years have been marked by growing cooperation between the current rulers of China, Russia and Iran. It is true that geopolitical struggles by each of these three powers against America and her allies were born independently of one another. The specific geopolitical goals of the three regimes are separate. But this was also true for Germany, Japan and Italy in the 1930s. They combined into their Axis because they shared the same main adversary in the Western democracies – just like China, Russia and Iran in the 2020s. This makes obvious sense from their perspective – states have been combining against their common adversaries since time immemorial.

The greatest geopolitical threats currently discussed in the West are the possibilities of China attacking Taiwan or another country in East Asia, and Russia attacking a NATO member country in Europe. Even more alarming is the possibility of China and Russia doing this at the same time. The NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, often speaks about this threat. In American strategic discourse this is known as the ‘simultaneity problem.’ The latest US National Defense Strategy, published on 23 January 2026, also uses this term and addresses this issue.

A combined action by China and Russia is obviously the main danger in this sense. But things could get even worse if Iran also acted aggressively at the same time. A historic moment when the US is unable to direct any significant military assets against Iran could be seen by the regime in Tehran as a unique opportunity that must not be missed.

There are various specific actions Iran could take in this scenario. It could block the Strait of Hormuz, including oil shipments to all US allies. It could direct the Houthis to block the sea route through the Suez Canal. It could go much further than that, and direct its huge and well-armed fifth column in Iraq to rebel against that country’s authorities. It could help its Iraqi proxies directly with its own armed forces. If successful in Iraq, it could then threaten the oil-bearing and Shia-majority Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia. Bahrain – long a target of Iranian subversion – would also be in grave danger.

It is worth remembering that, although Iran’s air force and navy are relatively weak, its land forces are very large. If supplied by China – through Russia and the Caspian Sea, for instance – they could present a formidable threat to the region. And yet, even minimalistic scenarios of Iranian aggression – such as the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz – could be severely damaging at a time of major great power war.

The only way to remove this threat is to terminate the Islamist regime in Tehran. Nothing else will suffice. Even an extensive bombing campaign aiming to weaken Iran’s capabilities will have only a temporary effect. The capabilities will be restored over time, possibly with Chinese and Russian help.

The fall of the Iranian regime would be the greatest geopolitical victory of the United States and the free world, so far, since 1991. Imagine Mussolini’s regime in Italy falling in 1938, before the start of the Second World War, instead of 1943. The strategic benefits would be of a similar nature in the case of Iran.

Like Mussolini’s Italy, Iran is the weakest of the principal members of the Axis. But even small weights can be decisive when scales are evenly balanced. A simultaneous aggression by China and Russia would be hard enough to handle for America and her allies. If Iran adds itself to this equation, it can make the struggle even more difficult and dangerous for the free world.

There can be no guarantee in advance that an effort to end the Iranian regime will be successful. But now is the best chance to achieve this since the regime’s emergence in 1979. This unique opportunity may not reappear for many years. Iranians hate their murderous rulers. But the apparatus of repression, if left unchecked, can break their will over time. We have seen this in China after Tiananmen Square, in Belarus, and in many other places. Great stakes are involved, not only for the freedom-loving Iranian people and the Middle East, but for the entire world situation and the United States in particular. These stakes demand decisive action.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)