Why understanding the difference between Trump’s objectives and Netanyahu’s matters for how (and whether) this conflict ends

America’s public objection to Israel’s recent targeting of the Shahran oil depot in northwest Tehran – a crucial element of Iran’s military-linked infrastructure – should remind us that although they may look the same, there are two wars being fought in Iran today: Trump’s War and Bibi’s War.

One can be forgiven for confusing the two, given how the current round of violence began and how the political principals are adding to the fog of war. But if we want to understand the motivations of the parties Iran calls its Great and Little Satan, and what would enable them to bring this war to an end, it would be helpful to distinguish between the two.

But first, a bit of history worth reviewing whenever one talks about Iran’s relationship with the United States and Israel: Iran declared war on the US and Israel 46 years ago, immediately upon the establishment of the Islamic Republic. It was Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini himself, the founder of the Islamic Republic, who led the chants “Death to America! Death to Israel!” It was the Ayatollah himself who decided to devote resources — even then — to propping up military forces across the region that would serve as proxies to advance his perpetual revolution and genocide of the Jewish State. Iran has killed over a thousand Americans since, and hundreds of Israelis too (thousands if you count October 7).

I find recalling that history important because it is often missing from media reports on the current round of fighting. It provides crucial context for understanding why so many Israelis support this war despite agreeing that Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s current prime minister, is a documented liar and manipulator. They know he has devoted much of his 18 years in power to warning Israelis and reminding the world about the Islamic Republic and its publicly and proudly stated designs. They know Iran means what it says when it says that it intends to destroy Israel.

It was under Netanyahu’s watch that Israel exposed a trove of documents attesting  to a secret Iranian nuclear program that evaded IAEA inspection. It was also under his watch that Iran invested billions into building a ring of fire around Israel, their “Axis of Resistance” threatening Israeli population centers with missiles and drones of Iranian design and manufacture. And it was under his watch that Hamas, a key Iranian ally, deceived Netanyahu and his administrations into believing they were willing to live beside the Jewish State in relative peace, so long as Qatari money kept flowing. It was Iran who conspired with Hamas to derail the Abraham Accords, and the planned peace agreement with Saudi Arabia that Netanyahu spoke about at the UN General Assembly in September, 2023.

So while the majority of Israelis are sick of Netanyahu, Bibi’s War on Iran is a war most Israelis feel they have no choice but to fight. Because Israelis have witnessed what Iranian missiles can do when launched in salvos. We saw that despite Iran’s deepening economic collapse, despite the drought and dehydration of Tehran, despite the massive blows to Iranian military infrastructure over 12 days last June, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard used the few billions it extracted from oil sales to rearm itself and Hezbollah, and geared up to attack us once more. We understood that if we do not strike now, while they are weakest, we will be encircled again, attacked again, surprised again.

If Israel has its way, Bibi’s War will only end when Iran’s capability to strike Israel is so degraded that it will take decades to rebuild. It could end tomorrow if Iran were to declare it is no longer at war with Israel, no longer committed to its demise, and willing to end its long-range missile program.

Trump’s War is a different war entirely. Despite the beliefs of many of my colleagues, Donald J. Trump is not a stupid man. He is not the Forrest Gump of politics. One does not rise to the top of multiple industries, does not rise and stay in the limelight, does not win two non-consecutive campaigns to the highest office in the world, while being cognitively impaired. Trump is, in fact, a gangster genius, the supreme mob boss, a wizard at winning power and enriching his family. This war began for him when he issued a warning to the Iranian regime not to harm the protestors in the streets, and they ignored him.

I do not believe Trump actually cares about the Iranian people who were brutally beaten and murdered by the forces of the Islamic Republic. Although the man is known for having a soft spot for being seen as a messianic figure (which was exploited beautifully by the hostage families in Israel), the reason Trump went to war is the same reason any mob boss is forced into action when publicly disrespected by a smaller rival: such things are just not done.

Operation Epic Fury should be understood through the lens of mob-boss politics: a demonstration of what happens when a lesser power steps out of line, a showcase of the might of the United States, proof of its leader’s determination to remain the global hegemon. Victory for Trump must be publicly displayed and understood by all. It cannot happen in a backroom deal. The humiliation must be visible for it to count.

Such a demonstration is especially critical for Trump at this juncture: after Trump’s tariffs failed to put the world in order, after Europe began to buck against American control, Trump’s mafioso strategic calculus made the war necessary before the summit with China — a way to show that he means business. Nowhere is that more apparent than in Trump’s focus on destroying the Iranian Navy and asserting American control over the Strait of Hormuz. Nice waterway you got there, Iran. Great way to get oil to China. Shame if something were to happen to it.

Trump’s War will end, therefore, either when Trump determines that Iranians have remembered their place and publicly kissed the ring, or when America so thoroughly controls the waterways that Trump alone decides who gets oil, and when.

Crucially, this analysis underscores why neither Bibi’s War nor Trump’s War is aimed at regime change. Just as Hamas remains in charge of Gaza, and just as Hezbollah was alone left to rearm for this round, Netanyahu could walk away from this war declaring victory even if Khamenei Jr. stays in power. Similarly, Trump would be fine with any Supreme Leader who drinks from the poison chalice and bows its knee. So while Bibi’s victory differs from Trump’s, the implication for the regime is the same: they may live to rule another day, if only they bend before they break. Those who want to end the war would be most effective if they use their voice to call on the regime to recognize that distinction, and make the hard decisions necessary to end the war.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)