The changing distribution of strategic value and how Azerbaijan reveals the strategic opportunities hidden within an interconnected threat environment

Azerbaijan occupies an increasingly unusual position within the contemporary geopolitical landscape. Its external environment has become more volatile: tensions with Iran persist, the regional order in the South Caucasus has changed following the wars of 2020 and 2023, the war in Ukraine has altered calculations surrounding Eurasian energy and connectivity, and Turkey’s regional influence has expanded. Yet Azerbaijan’s strategic relevance has increased during precisely this period.

Its energy infrastructure has acquired greater significance within European diversification efforts. Its geography occupies an important position in east-west and north-south connectivity. Its relationship with Turkey remains foundational, while its partnership with Israel carries particular significance within the wider Iranian security environment. The assets themselves are not new. The strategic environment surrounding them is.

Threats do not merely impose costs on geopolitical systems. Threat and opportunity can be simultaneous properties of the same structural condition. The threat represented by regional instability cannot always be understood without examining the strategic opportunities that instability creates for the states positioned around........

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