The Reserve Bank has delivered home buyers and businesses some respite – but a loaf of mouldy bread to Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers.

While it may never admit to erring at its July meeting, where six members of the bank’s interest-rate-setting board held doubts about the path for inflation, the three who voted to cut the cash rate have been vindicated.

The rate cut announced by Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock on Tuesday was welcome – less so the RBA’s productivity estimates.Credit: Marija Ercegovac

More cuts are likely by year’s end. At least one, maybe a couple. That would mean a cash rate of around 3.1 per cent, more than a full percentage point lower than at the start of 2025. On a $600,000 mortgage, it equates to a saving of about $500 a month.

Given the turmoil caused by the current occupant of the White House, that’s a relatively smooth path.

As the RBA notes, people have actually been putting away their cash rather than rushing out on a spending spree. That’s helped the bank’s efforts to bring down inflation.

But just as in any substantial economic change, there are winners and losers in this story.

The Reserve used its quarterly update of key economic forecasts – the numbers that........

© The Sydney Morning Herald