How far is too far? The risks of a tumbling property market

June 29, 2026 — 3:24pm

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Brace for impact. Tuesday will deliver the figures on the monthly change in home prices. For the two-thirds of Australians who are already owners, it will be unwelcome news.

And as much as various federal government ministers turn themselves inside out to avoid admitting it, this was the house price correction that Labor engineered.

In its May budget, Treasury forecast that the government’s tax changes to help young people get into the housing market would lower property price growth by a modest 2 per cent against a background of roughly 6 per cent annual increases since 2000.

But tax tools can be too blunt to allow governments to guide the glide to a gentle price landing.

In the major markets of Sydney and Melbourne, the June price fall will be meaningful – and likely to mirror the drops of 0.9 per cent and 0.8 per cent reported in May. There is nothing gentle........

© The Sydney Morning Herald