The US midterm elections on November 3 will test whether President Donald Trump’s political dominance can survive the consequences of his own policies. With Republicans controlling both chambers of Congress, the vote will determine not merely the legislative prospects of his administration but also the limits of presidential power in a deeply polarised democracy.

A Republican setback would demonstrate that even a president who commands an intensely loyal political base remains vulnerable when economic anxieties collide with unfulfilled promises. Trump returned to the White House pledging to make America affordable again. Yet rising fuel prices, intensified by the war with Iran, have exposed the risks of coupling domestic economic promises with disruptive foreign-policy decisions. His approval rating, hovering around 37 per cent, suggests that dissatisfaction extends beyond individual policy disagreements. Voters who expected relief from inflation and household expenses may increasingly question whether the administration’s priorities reflect their concerns.

The Democrats have a credible opportunity to exploit this discontent, particularly in the House of Representatives, where the Republican majority is exceptionally narrow. Historical precedent reinforces their prospects: the president’s party has........

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