Wars often end long before the shooting stops. They end when one side concludes it cannot win, when both sides accept the limits of military power, or when external actors impose a framework that neither can ignore. None of those conditions exists in Ukraine today. Recent diplomatic manoeuvres have once again highlighted a fundamental reality: Moscow and Kyiv may both speak the language of peace, but they continue to define peace in mutually incompatible ways. Ukraine seeks security, sovereignty and the recovery of territory lost through force. Russia seeks recognition of territorial gains and a political settlement that permanently limits Ukraine’s strategic choices.

Between those positions lies a gap that no summit, letter or mediation effort can presently bridge. The conflict has therefore entered a phase in which diplomacy is increasingly directed at international audiences rather than at producing an actual settlement. Kyiv wants to demonstrate to its Western partners that it remains committed to negotiations and is not the obstacle to peace. Moscow wants to reinforce the perception that time remains on its side and that battlefield realities will eventually........

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