For more than two decades, India’s nuclear doctrine has been treated as a settled matter. Built around the principles of No First Use and assured retaliation, it has projected restraint while signalling resolve. It reflected a strategic culture that sought credibility without courting recklessness. But doctrines, like technologies, cannot remain frozen in time. The uncomfortable question India must now confront is whether assumptions forged in the early years of this century can still withstand the realities of the next. The world that shaped India’s nuclear thinking was one in which concealment was possible and uncertainty worked in favour of stability.

Mobile launchers could disappear into vast terrain. Hardened facilities promised a degree of protection. The belief that enough weapons would survive an enemy’s first strike to permit devastating retaliation underpinned the logic of deterrence. Today, that logic faces unprecedented strain. Persistent satellite constellations, artificial intelligence enabled data analysis, advanced sensors, long-range precision missiles and hypersonic delivery systems have transformed the strategic landscape. The battlefield is increasingly transparent. Targets that once relied on mobility and secrecy may now be monitored,........

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