Benjamin Netanyahu’s most consequential electoral victory may not require him to win Israel’s forthcoming parliamentary election. That paradox lies at the heart of the campaign now taking shape. Polls may show former military chief Gadi Eisenkot emerging as a serious challenger, but Israel’s fragmented political system means that defeating Netanyahu at the ballot box is only the first hurdle.

The harder question is whether an alternative government can be assembled without accepting the political boundaries Netanyahu has spent years constructing. Israel’s electoral system makes coalitionbuilding unavoidable. No party can realistically govern alone in the 120-member Knesset; a majority requires 61 seats. For the opposition, this arithmetic may eventually require some form of cooperation with Arab parties. Netanyahu has seized on that possibility, portraying such alliances as inherently illegitimate and casting his opponents as dependent on forces hostile to Israel’s interests.

The tactic is politically effective precisely because it exploits one of Israeli democracy’s unresolved contradictions. Arab citizens account for roughly a fifth of the population and possess full voting rights, yet their elected representatives........

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