The United States and Israel launched coordinated air attacks on Iran. The build-up by the US, including moving two carrier groups into the region, alongside relocating dozens of aircraft from Europe to Israel, all at a cost of billions of dollars, was never intended solely for the application of pressure.

Talks were a formality and aimed at enabling the build-up to become. The fact that Iran had agreed to every condition on the nuclear issue, including monitoring by the IAEA and the US, was ignored.

President Donald Trump had hinted at striking Iran for some time. His hatred for the regime stems from the incident when Iranian rebels seized the US embassy and held its 52 staff members captive from November 1979 to January 1981. An added cause for his dislike has been Hamas’s actions of 7 October 2023, armed and backed by Iran.

Tehran was also aware that the US would strike and had prepared accordingly, though it hoped dialogue would find a solution. In all likelihood, initial strikes were launched based on intelligence inputs that a meeting of the top hierarchy was taking place, hoping for immediate success and it worked. It is always the first strike that is most effective. Trump termed the operation as ‘Epic Fury’ and Israel as ‘Lions’ Roar,’ implying both had different objectives, though they operated in sync. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ’s objective was the destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities, while Trump sought regime change. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy, mentioned last week that Iran was weeks away from developing nuclear weapons. This conveys that the much-hyped strike of June last year, termed as ‘Midnight Hammer,’ by the US had failed to achieve its objective. It is also possible that Trump was pushed to act as a condition for Netanyahu to accept his plan for Gaza. Netanyahu must have demanded an end to the Iranian regime, thereby stopping support for Hamas, securing Israel during the occupation of Gaza by the International Stabilization Force under Trump’s proposed Board of Peace.

Logically, the end state for both Israel and the US should have been similar. How they will ensure its achievement is to be seen. Neither nation has plans for placing boots on the ground. Trump hopes that Iran would go the Libyan way, where airstrikes on military targets enabled the revolution to succeed, resulting in the overthrow of Gaddafi. This may not happen in Iran and instead there could be further brutality in the streets and an uprising.

It has been confirmed that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has been killed. Khamenei was aware that he was a target of the US and Israel and hence had established a multi-layered system of succession. Hence, hoping for regime change by eliminating the hierarchy may not work, though degradation of oil assets, ports and other economic facilities could happen.

Israel’s MOSSAD and the CIA had penetrated deep within Iran, armoured and funded anti-regime groups, whom they now hope would rise. Whether these groups can overthrow a regime that has crushed protests brutally is to be seen.

For the people of Iran, neither overthrow of the current regime nor a pro-US regime in Tehran is ideal. The country’s economy, under the current regime and facing a host of sanctions, is at rock bottom. An uprising could make it worse. If the regime does survive, even with change of guard, sanctions would continue. Destruction of its oil refineries and oil fields would only add to economic woes. If the uprising succeeds, it is unsure whether Iran would remain one state or be splintered like Iraq or Libya.

If a pro-US regime comes in, the US would extract its pound of flesh, demanding oil production be managed by US companies. This would not benefit the populace. Further, the US would place terms and conditions that may not be palatable to the populace at large. Venezuela is a prime example of the US behaving as a colonial power, albeit from a distance. Iran, in retaliation, has struck the US’s bases in West Asia and Israel. It had already announced them as legitimate targets. There is bound to be collateral damage as its missiles lack accuracy. While West Asian nations had permitted their bases to be used for targeting Iran, they did host US troops on their soil. Iran, which lacks the capability to hit the mainland US, targeted these bases.

Saudi Arabia was the first to criticise Iran’s missile strikes on West Asia. Though it had normalised ties with Tehran and also assured it that it would not permit its bases and airspace to be exploited for the strikes, it was reported that the Crown Prince called Washington multiple times requesting it to target Iran. It is now again an avowed Iranian enemy. In retaliation to Iranian strikes, Riyadh has announced support for West Asian nations.

Iran’s action, including targeting Qatar and Oman, will divide the region for a long time. Iran is aware that US strikes are unlikely to end soon. It will be some time before Trump announces the culmination of the operation. Tehran has currently only retaliated with missiles. It has the ability to block the Straits of Hormuz, which dominates global oil movements; whether it will also target West Asia oil infrastructure is unknown. Any of these actions would impact global oil prices.

For the US, which does not import oil from West Asia, the impact would be less, while for the rest of the world, especially nations like India, there would be an economic cost. Most telling would be the impact on China, which imports 15 per cent of its oil from Iran. This attack is also an indirect economic war on China. The world is already facing communication woes with the closure of West Asia airspace and major airports.

The US action on Venezuela and now Iran suggest that weak nations on Trump’s hitlist are heading for regime change. Trump, who claimed to have stopped eight wars and terms himself a man of peace, is busy pushing regime change. Cuba is possibly his next target. Whether this would be done militarily or through economic coercion is unknown. The only nation that will remain untouched is North Korea because it possesses nuclear weapons. The secret to survival from US-pushed regime change is to possess nuclear weapons. (The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army. The views are personal.)

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